Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.363775 0.422846 0.486955 0.561505 0.645614 0.737363 0.844810
2025-05-11 0.283353 0.360762 0.451229 0.564042 0.700168 0.858302 1.055017
2025-05-18 0.210673 0.293670 0.397982 0.537070 0.715817 0.935803 1.224743
2025-05-25 0.153895 0.235593 0.346164 0.503766 0.719128 0.999195 1.386284
2025-06-01 0.118802 0.199598 0.317163 0.495772 0.754275 1.107905 1.619706
2025-06-08 0.090860 0.168032 0.288899 0.484541 0.783997 1.213980 1.863878
2025-06-15 0.074426 0.150874 0.279197 0.499406 0.853958 1.385454 2.219934
2025-06-22 0.055063 0.123829 0.248500 0.476486 0.863936 1.471628 2.464112
2025-06-29 0.041750 0.104198 0.226348 0.463850 0.888636 1.583543 2.760335
2025-07-06 0.031258 0.086970 0.204762 0.448307 0.906357 1.686880 3.055272
2025-07-13 0.025571 0.078511 0.198462 0.460114 0.973863 1.879982 3.515218
2025-07-20 0.020040 0.068441 0.186459 0.458644 1.017155 2.037114 3.931866
2025-07-27 0.015965 0.060871 0.178830 0.466371 1.082374 2.245778 4.467656
2025-08-03 0.012589 0.053814 0.170629 0.471553 1.144084 2.456320 5.029935
2025-08-10 0.008989 0.044071 0.152704 0.450845 1.149693 2.563612 5.419028
2025-08-17 0.006174 0.035209 0.134095 0.424105 1.138062 2.636664 5.753382
2025-08-24 0.004598 0.030120 0.124743 0.418781 1.173733 2.808478 6.293132
2025-08-31 0.003355 0.025484 0.115078 0.410352 1.201025 2.966594 6.822050
2025-09-07 0.002721 0.023402 0.113402 0.424355 1.285196 3.254337 7.635799
2025-09-14 0.001862 0.019058 0.101600 0.405310 1.283653 3.356730 8.082411
2025-09-21 0.001317 0.015997 0.093334 0.395031 1.303118 3.507921 8.644091
2025-09-28 0.000906 0.013253 0.084974 0.382071 1.313179 3.638781 9.174249
2025-10-05 0.000719 0.012142 0.083568 0.392867 1.391200 3.936229 10.088312